Late Holocene earthquakes on the Papatea Fault and its role in past earthquake cycles, Marlborough, New Zealand

The north-striking sinistral reverse Papatea Fault ruptured with a very large (up to 12 m) oblique slip as part of the 2016 M _W 7.8 Kaikōura earthquake in the northeastern South Island. Paleoseismic studies were undertaken at three sites along the Papatea Fault, named Murray’s roadcut, Jacqui’s Gully (both on the main strand), and Wharekiri trench (western strand). These sites provide evidence for up to three Late Holocene paleoearthquakes prior to 2016 (=E₀) on this previously unmapped active fault, with preferred OxCal-modelled timings of 98–149 (E₁), 546–645 cal yr BP (E₂), and >738 cal yr BP (E₃). Event correlations between the sites are generally consistent across these past events, implying that the two strands of the Papatea Fault link at depth and rupture together co-seismically as in 2016. Comparisons of its paleoseismic record with the Kekerengu Fault and uplift data from Waipapa Bay and Kaikōura, suggest that the Papatea Fault may have three distinct rupture modes: (i) Kaikōura-type multi-fault ruptures with multi-metre, anelastic block displacements and associated major landscape change; (ii) multi-fault earthquake ruptures with other regional fault combinations; and (iii) single-fault Papatea ruptures with metre-scale displacement. OxCal models offer the possibility that the E₁ fault rupture occurred in 1855 CE.